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HYPERLINK "http://www.TheHistoryofWWE.com" TheHistoryofWWE.com
April 29, 2006 HYPERLINK "mailto:philfortyfour@yahoo.com" Phil DiLiegro
Another Look at Match Time and Workrate and Does Size Matter?
Id like to depart this week from my analysis of 1987 to take a look once again, with an objective eye as always, to workrate. Some of you may recall my HYPERLINK "http://www.angelfire.com/wrestling/cawthon777/MatchQuality.doc" initial piece on workrate in which I delved into the relationship between the length of a match and its quality. Predictably, it turns out that the longer the match, the higher it ranks according to star rating. As a refresher, here is the resulting chart with inputs being every WrestleMania match in history.
EMBED MSWorks4Sheet \s From the above chart, the following regression equation, designed to produce the expected star rating given a matchs length, resulted:
Star Rating = .132 (time in minutes) + .435
I also mentioned in my piece that one weakness of the equation resulting from a lack of samples was using it to predict longer matches. That regression line assumes that each additional minute of match time should in theory improve the quality of a match. However, a look at the entries in the chart and ones own intuition would staunchly dispute that notion. Is it any harder to have a fivestar match or a threestar match for that matter given twentyfive minutes rather than thirty? According to the formula, a thirty minute match would be expected to yield 4.4 stars. Obviously, there are some shortcomings in the formula through it does hold up well for shorter matches: the formula is only as good as the data it is given. So, as was done before, I compiled a database of WWF matches by combing through old issues of the HYPERLINK "http://www.wrestlingobserver.com" Wrestling Observer Newsletter and Scott Keiths HYPERLINK "http://www.insidepulse.com/rantarchive.php" archive; however, this time the sample was limited to matches over 20 minutes. I inputted over sixty such matches into a spreadsheet and voila:
EMBED MSWorks4Sheet \s
Statistical Information
Correlation Coefficient: .165 RSquared: .027
Regression Equation: Star Rating = 3.73 + .014 (time  20).
Correlation is a statistical tool that measures how closely one set of numbers tracks a second set. It is measured from 1 to1. Negative scores mean that the two variables move in opposite directions: positive scores mean that both sets rise and fall together. The closer you get to 1 or 1, the stronger the relationship is, while a score of zero means there is no relationship whatsoever. Rsquared runs from 0 to 1 with the gist being that the closer you get to 1, the more closely correlated the variables are. I did include a few matches longer than 38 minutes, including three ironman matches but left them off the chart for readability.
A few conclusions jump off the page after a look at the data. Firstly, given twenty minutes or more, it is awfully hard to have a bad match or even a mediocre one. This likely represents bookers choices to award long match time to only those workers who can handle it as well as the intrinsic benefit of so much time. Secondly, there seems to be little benefit to having more match time after you reach twenty minutes as each additional minute has a marginal benefit of .014 stars. The very low correlation coefficient and rsquared variables further this conclusion. The correlation coefficient for the data set of all matches, regardless of length, was a strong .622 and each additional minute was worth .132 stars. So, match length does matter up to a point, right around 20 minutes, and then it becomes trivial as far as having any predictive quality toward the star rating of the match.
Now being armed with thoroughly researched equations, we can go further on that exercise I began several weeks ago. What follows is a table containing the star ratings of each of the matches from this years WrestleMania, their expected star rating and the difference. The difference establishes the best performances by workers though not necessarily the best matches. Note that for matches between 1825 minutes, I used a weighted average of both formulas as the individual formulas are inadequate. To determine the expected value for a 20 minute match, an ideal data set would include matches of lengths between, say, 15 and 25 minutes, for instance.
Match (time)RatingExpected RatingDiff.Kane/Big Show v. Carlito/Masters (6:41)*1/21.32.18Money in the Bank Ladder (12:21)****1/42.072.18Chris Benoit v. JBL (9:44)**1/21.72.78Mick Foley v. Edge (14:37)***1/22.361.14Boogeyman v. Booker T (3:52)*1/2.952.45Trish v. Mickie James (8:48) *1/41.60.35Undertaker v. Mark Henry (9:26)*1/21.68.18Michaels v. McMahon (18:28) ***1/23.12.38Angle v. Mysterio v. Orton (9:18)***1/41.661.59Torrie v. Candice (3:54)0.95.95John Cena v. HHH (22:02)***3/43.63.12
The star ratings are my own though they reflect the general consensus, I would imagine. Two matches stand out for different reasons. The threeway for the Smackdown title fared very well largely because it featured arguably the shows two best workers: Angle and Mysterio. The money in the bank ladder match had the huge advantage of a gimmick that lends itself to a successful match and six workers instead of two to carry the action and take all the bumps. While it rates as the best performance of the night, I would tend to give that honor to the threeway for the aforementioned reasons. Mick Foley and Edge performed well also though they had a huge booking advantage with the noholds barred gimmick and all the blood. Matches involving bad workers (Boogeyman, Henry, the women) predictably had bad differentials. On paper the notion of HHH and John Cena having a ***3/4 match seems preposterous, but this analysis of the relationship between time and workrate explains that well and even would have predicted it. So, we have learned something after all. Your feedback is always encouraged and welcomed at the email address at the top.
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